怎么看民调【优秀范文】

下面是小编为大家整理的怎么看民调【优秀范文】,供大家参考。

　怎么看民调 Taiwan"s "7 in 1" election period: what do you think of polls?

　2014 is Taiwan "7 1" election year ("7 and 1" refers to the mayor of Taiwan municipality directly under the central government, municipalities, county mayors, county councilors members, township mayors, township representatives, village elections, held on November 29th to determine. For Taipei, the mayor and Taichung mayor, and other popular public office, the Taiwan polling agency has released a large number of election polls. In recent years, political parties in Taiwan have often used polling to decide candidates for various elections, so the importance of polls is not to be underestimated.

　Public opinion polls are a survey of public opinions and attitudes about certain political, economic, and social issues aimed at reflecting public opinion or public opinion. Although the poll"s original intention is to reflect public opinion, but by the end of the election, compared to the results of the election and previous polls, often found that polls are mostly unreliable". It also raises the question, how did Taiwan"s opinion polls come about? Why is there a certain difference between the actual voting results? What is the purpose of the opinion polls made by various agencies?

　How did the polls come about?

　According to incomplete statistics, there are about 70 polling institutions in Taiwan, newspapers have poll, such as the "China Times", "United Daily News", etc.; television stations have poll, such as TVBS. Political parties also have polls, and

　both the KMT and the DPP have larger pollsters, but most of these internal data are not public. The third category is the academic center of Taiwan, the election research center of Taiwan Political University, the center for opinion research at Zhongshan University and so on. The last category is a business that specializes in polls, such as the internationally renowned Gallup poll.

　At present, the main media for regular political party polls are: China times, United Daily News, and TVBS TV stations, but the reasons for their continued criticism are also that the political overtones of these media are generally blue. The relative pollsters "fair vision" blue green common requirements of interviewer articulate, also fluent in taiwanese. The content of the conversation between the supervisor will be recording and more respondents, after a detailed verification.

　In fact, polls are using the most basic statistical sampling theory, which is to randomly select voters from all the voters to find out about their voting tendency, so that the results can be put to the full range of voters" intentions. Generally, polls can be divided into three stages: sampling, questionnaires, and collating data. In this sampling stage, Taiwan pollsters generally take the street or come home distributing questionnaires, telephone inquiry and online voting three poll methods.

　Is the poll accurate?

　There are two reasons why there may be a gap between poll results

　and actual voting results. One is consciously manipulated, such as a false poll or a polling agency itself that has a strong political bias. Another reason is the error caused by measuring tools. These errors can be avoided, but they can not be completely eliminated.

　As mentioned above, Taiwan pollsters generally take the street or come home distributing questionnaires, telephone inquiry and online voting three poll methods. But different ways of choosing result in different results. For example, by telephone interview or will vote online is more favorable for the blue camp, because the blue camp supporters were mostly higher social status, and the green camp supporters mostly in rural areas of Southern farmers or indigenous people, home is not necessarily to install a phone call, not to mention the computer. Therefore, if the telephone interviews Taiwan range or online poll for statistical support for the green men.

　In addition, Taiwan most polls are carried out by call landline telephone interview, but with the popularity of the mobile phone more people abandoned the plane, retaining only the mobile phone, usually these people for young people. And the number of people who use landline phones at home may also be home to older people, which may lead to an imbalance in the age distribution of respondents. Moreover, in order to improve the success rate of polls, most polling time will be selected on the night of the workday,.

　But to be honest, work tired all day to go home, do not necessarily have the patience and objectively answered the questionnaire and lengthy.

　 Second, the election results may be diametrically opposed by geographical differences. Taiwan"s political territory is roughly "north, blue, South and green", and if polls are chosen mainly in the north, it will inevitably turn blue. For example, recently published by the TVBS of Ke Wenzhe straight text polls, or Ding Shouzhong Ke Wenzhe in the polls, but there is not much sense, because this is not entirely true intention to support the public reaction to candidates, more is to reflect Taipei"s "blue and green" distribution.

　Finally, pollsters also have a clue when asking questions to respondents. For example, only speak Taiwanese respondents can understand Mandarin, or respondents are not willing to express their political tendencies, pollsters should constantly ask, or guide the idea of good at giving systematic guidance. These questions can cause bias in poll results.

　In view of this, in sampling and investigation of these two links, there may be countless errors, the poll results can not represent the true public opinion, and can only serve as a reference basis.

　Polls become campaign tools

　According to Taiwan media poll found that past experience, there will be about 20% of the voters do not want to say contact every time in the polls, these voters with green majority, which is also closely linked with educated voters. People with higher education are more likely to express their attitudes because they have a better understanding of the state of society. The

　low educational level is based on doubts, so the willingness to express attitudes is low and political tendencies change as the situation changes. Polls may also help, guide and even mislead political voters who are less determined, because there are indeed many people in Taiwan who are watching polls.

　When voters, for example, find out by election polls that their favorite candidates are already in a clear position, their own vote will not change much materially. Voters may change their votes and vote for their peers, but the underdog will at least make the most of the votes. As a result, the highest number of candidates in the polls had failed earlier because voters were misled by the polls.

　Or, when voters found their favorite for people"s tone is too low, basically no hope to win, in order not to waste their votes, they will vote for any other candidate is expected to win, eventually making the low vote has become increasingly low.

　There are, of course, candidates who use polls as a tool for campaigning. For example, fast to the final voting phase, the candidate may fear that voters think they have enough votes not to vote, will play the "tragic brand" said they hope that we can preserve the polls behind.

　Can be seen from the above circumstances, the poll is not entirely a response to public opinion seems to be a neutral and objective tool, it may lead to even misleading voters, candidates may also become a political tool of the campaign.

　So during the election period in Taiwan, there is no need for

　all the letters to be taken as a reference.